Persistent internal disagreements remain among Iranian regime leaders over the concessions that the regime should accept in negotiations with the United States. Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Commander Major General Ahmad Vahidi and his inner circle, whom ISW-CTP currently assesses are driving regime decision-making, appear to continue to seek an agreement that meets Iranian maximalist demands and would be tantamount to a US surrender. Islamic Development Organization (IDO)-affiliated outlet Mehr News Agency published a version of the draft US-Iran memorandum of understanding (MoU) on June 12 that includes all key Iranian demands, including Iran’s retention of "management" of the Strait of Hormuz, the release of frozen Iranian assets, and a US-funded reconstruction plan for Iran. Multiple Iranian outlets, including IRGC-affiliated outlets and state media, recirculated this report or similar readouts of the draft MoU. That IRGC-affiliated outlets are circulating this maximalist draft of the MOU suggests that this purported draft reflects the views of IRGC leaders. ISW-CTP continues to assess that the IRGC, particularly Vahidi and his inner circle, currently dominates regime decision-making and has repeatedly pushed for uncompromising, maximalist negotiating positions, suggesting that the regime is likely to adopt a similar approach. Some outlets that are not affiliated with the IRGC also circulated this “draft” and expressed hardline and maximalist demands, however.
Conflicting US and Iranian accounts of the MoU suggest that the United States and Iran remain far apart on several core issues, however. It remains unclear whether these public statements accurately reflect each side's negotiating position or the contents of the agreement, given competition between the two camps. A senior Trump administration official told CNN that the agreement includes provisions requiring Iran to dismantle its nuclear program and end support for the Axis of Resistance. A senior US official echoed those Iranian commitments to ABC and added that Iran also agreed to dismantle its nuclear program. Several Iranian media outlets, however, stated on June 12 that neither Iran’s missile program nor its support for the Axis of Resistance is part of the MoU and emphasized that those issues would not be discussed in future negotiations either. These outlets further claimed that the current agreement does not discuss the nuclear issue and imposes no new nuclear commitments on Iran.
Iranian statements and Iran’s continued use of force and coercion in the Strait of Hormuz indicate that the regime remains unwilling to relinquish its claims to control over the waterway. Any US-Iran agreement must require Iran to abandon efforts to establish long-term authority over the strait. An unspecified diplomat from a mediating country told Axios that Iran would “reopen” the strait by eliminating tolls and restoring pre-war shipping volumes within 30 days under the MoU. Iranian media reporting describes similar provisions. Iranian state media emphasized that Iran would retain management of the strait under the MoU and that Iran and Oman would jointly determine the future of the strait’s administration, however. The MoU’s terms on re-opening the strait, as rendered by various reports, do not appear to constrain Iran’s broader efforts and capabilities to institutionalize its control over the strait. ISW-CTP previously assessed that Iran’s lack of ability to charge tolls does not constitute a failure of Iran’s broader scheme to control the strait. | 
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