Iran is attempting to use the sequencing of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding’s (MoU) clauses to make the United States meet Iranian demands regarding Lebanon and economic relief before Iran agrees to discuss nuclear issues. Iran and the United States held quadrilateral talks with Qatari and Pakistani mediators in Burgenstock, Switzerland, on June 21. Qatari officials stated that the parties established “specialized technical and expert working groups” to negotiate a final agreement covering “all aspects” of the MoU. Iranian officials and media emphasized that the June 21 talks only focused on pushing the United States to implement MoU clauses that the MoU states must be implemented before nuclear negotiations can begin, however. Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC)-affiliated Fars News reported on June 21 that no members of Iran’s “nuclear committee” were part of the Iranian delegation. Iranian negotiating team member Hossein Ghorban Zadeh said that the talks focused on implementing clause 13 of the MoU, which states that Iran and the United States will only start negotiations for a final agreement once clauses 1, 4, 5, 10, and 11 are implemented. These clauses concern the ceasefire on all fronts, including Lebanon, the lifting of the US naval blockade, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, temporary oil sanctions waivers, and the release of frozen Iranian assets. Ghorban Zadeh emphasized that a ceasefire in Lebanon is Iran’s “top priority” and that progress on other aspects of the MoU depends on this ceasefire. Iran’s conditions in these talks demonstrate how Iran is using the MoU’s sequencing to demand that the United States fulfil its commitments in the MoU before Iran agrees to discuss its nuclear program. Iranian officials and media have repeatedly emphasized that Iran must solidify its military gains in the war in negotiations by using negotiations to secure Iran’s strategic objectives, which include preserving Hezbollah and the Axis of Resistance writ large as well as securing Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz. The talks reportedly paused after US President Donald Trump threatened Iran that the United States would strike Iran “harder” if Iran does not stop Hezbollah, which prompted the Iranian team to temporarily withdraw to its hotel “in protest,” according to Iranian media. An unspecified diplomat told Axios on June 21 that the Iranian delegation had not left the venue and that US-Iran negotiations were ongoing, however.
Iran is using the first clause of the MoU, which calls for a ceasefire on all fronts, to try to pressure the United States to compel Israel to cease operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon and withdraw its forces from Lebanese territory. Iran’s interpretation of this clause is part of its broader effort to preserve Hezbollah as a central element of Iran’s deterrence strategy against Israel. Iranian officials have interpreted the first clause of the MoU as requiring both a halt to Israeli operations against Hezbollah and an Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon. This interpretation creates a win-win situation for the regime: if the United States agrees to Iran’s interpretation and compels Israel to withdraw its forces from Lebanon, this would represent a strategic victory for Iran and Hezbollah. If, on the other hand, the United States does not accept Iran’s interpretation of this clause, Iran can continue to postpone nuclear negotiations by claiming that the United States is violating the MoU. Hezbollah-affiliated parliamentarians have stated that the US-Iran MoU provides a path to a complete ceasefire in Lebanon and Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon. Israeli and Hezbollah attacks have paused since June 20, but Israeli forces continue clearing operations within the Israel Defense Forces’ (IDF) “security zone” in southern Lebanon. The current ceasefire in Lebanon will likely not satisfy Iran’s maximalist demands because Israeli officials continue to emphasize that the IDF will remain in southern Lebanon, however. Israeli media reported on June 21 that the United States is pushing the IDF to withdraw to positions at and behind the Yellow Line, which denotes the extent of the IDF’s military buffer zone in Lebanon. Israeli media added that Israeli political officials instructed the IDF to halt operations around Ali al Taher in order to avoid disrupting US-Iran negotiations.
Iran is also attempting to frontload economic benefits from the MoU before addressing its nuclear program in negotiations. Iran likely seeks to acquire funds up front in case negotiations collapse and also likely seeks to reduce US leverage in later nuclear talks in order to make it more difficult for the United States to extract concessions from Iran. Iran could use early access to oil revenue and frozen assets to reduce US leverage during the 60-day nuclear negotiations period and try to reconstitute its military capabilities and the Axis of Resistance. Fars News reported that Iran is still expecting the United States to release $12 billion USD in Iranian assets, which Fars News claimed includes a planned $500 million USD “test purchase” from Iranian assets in Qatar. The Iranian Central Bank also confirmed that Central Bank Governor Abdolnaser Hemmati joined the Iranian delegation in Switzerland to work on the release of the $6 billion USD that is blocked in Qatar. ISW-CTP previously assessed on June 20 that Hemmati’s inclusion in the Iranian delegation indicated that Iran intended to focus part of the talks in Switzerland on economic relief. | 
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